GBP Consolidates Ahead of UK's Autumn Statement Amid Elevated Fiscal Risk
The British Pound (GBP) has been consolidating in a tight mid-1.36 range against the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the UK's Autumn Statement on October 28. According to Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret, the pound's steady recovery in sentiment has offset concerns related to the recent leadership transition to Prime Minister Burnham.
The data release calendar remains limited, and Bank of England (BoE) policymakers have been quiet for much of August. However, yield spreads have pulled back, eroding a source of fundamental support for the GBP. Osborne and Theoret note that fiscal risk will remain elevated into the fall as markets look to the Autumn Statement.
The strategists also point out that the pound's latest rally has stalled above 1.3650, around the peaks from early May. They see a near-term range-bound scenario between 1.3600 and 1.3700, with support closer to 1.3500 and no meaningful resistance ahead of the 2026 high above 1.3800.