GBP/USD at Make-or-Break Point Ahead of UK Jobs and Inflation Data

GBP/USD is at an interesting point due to resilient UK growth and expectations of another Bank of England rate hike this year.

The upcoming UK jobs data on August 18 will provide insight into domestic inflation pressure, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on August 19 will be a bigger test for the pound.

If wage growth stabilizes or reaccelerates, unemployment remains steady or falls, and CPI rises above 2.9% with services inflation above 3.4%, it would suggest domestic inflation pressure is not cooling as quickly as the BoE wants.

This scenario could bring additional tightening back into the rates curve, making a sustained break above 1.35-1.36 more likely and strengthening the bullish setup for GBP/USD.