Global Macro Conditions Weigh on BTC Rebound Amid Stubborn Inflation
This week's global macro trading narrative centered on 'cooling US inflation and weakening consumption.' The US July CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month, with the year-over-year figure declining from 3.5% to 3.4%, while core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5% year-over-year. However, energy shocks continue to prevent monetary policy from shifting toward easing.
The US July retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6% month-over-month, suggesting momentum in US demand and the labor market is fading. Despite this, tensions in the Middle East and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz remain a major macro variable. The IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand and supply forecasts, global inventories declined notably, and WTI and Brent settled at approximately $82.40 and $88.52, respectively.
The Fed finds itself in a classic dilemma of 'cooling growth but inflation still above target.' Following this week's inflation and consumption data, Treasuries and the dollar briefly weakened, but the 10-year Treasury yield remained near elevated levels around 4.70%. Next week, markets will closely watch the Fed's July meeting minutes, PMI data, industrial production, and housing figures.
The crypto market exhibited a pattern of sustained pullback after failing to break higher, with BTC declining more than ETH and altcoins diverging. The core theme remained price pressure. BTC opened around $64,845 on August 10, briefly spiked to $65,322 that day, but then declined continuously.