Gold Prices Weaken Ahead of Federal Reserve Decision

Gold prices have been under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on July 29, as firm real yields and a resilient US dollar weighed on prices. The gold spot price was trading at $4,045.15 early Tuesday morning.

Futures markets continue to price in a meaningful probability of a rate rise rather than a cut. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased but remain unresolved, limiting safe-haven demand compared with earlier in the month.

Third-party gold predictions present a wide range of outcomes, from near-term consolidation to sharply contrasting year-end scenarios. BeInCrypto identifies a head-and-shoulders chart pattern that could indicate a downside target near $2,575 per ounce if confirmed by a weekly close below the neckline.

Mitrade reports that Goldman Sachs has set a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 based on expectations of renewed central-bank buying and a softer US dollar towards year-end. Crescat Capital sets a long-term macroeconomic model linking gold to global M2 growth and fiscal imbalances, targeting $20,000 per ounce within approximately four years.

The Fed's meeting remains the main focus, with CME FedWatch data showing just above a 25% implied probability of a rate change. Markets lean toward a September move. Gold spot traded within a broad range through late July, near $4,046 per ounce on 28 July, down around 0.65% on the day but up approximately 21.6% year on year.

This technical analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Gold spot prices trade at $4,045.15, below its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages. The price therefore remains below each of the main moving averages on the daily chart.