Gold Surges to Nearly $4,400 as Investors Await US Inflation Data

Gold prices have surged to nearly $4,400, its highest level since June 5, as investors await the release of US inflation data. The metal's gains are being supported by stubborn expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes and firm US Treasury yields, which continue to underpin the US Dollar.

However, technical resistance around $4,500 and layered Fibonacci levels are limiting gold's upside. Analysts at Commerzbank note that hopes for a new agreement between Iran and the US in the near future and for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened are fading, as diplomatic positions have hardened over the weekend.

Iran has set out its conditions for reopening the strait, including demands for reparations, while US President Trump countered with new demand for compensation payments for the victims of the conflict. This escalation in mutual demands underscores the diminishing likelihood of a near-term deal to restore full transit through the key shipping corridor, reinforcing the current risk premium embedded in energy markets.