Goldman's Hatzius Sees Benign July CPI Print, No Rate Hike Needed This Year

Goldman Sachs chief economist and head of global investment research Jan Hatzius expects a benign July US CPI print, forecasting around 0.05% month on month headline inflation and 0.19% core inflation.

These numbers are in line with or slightly below consensus expectations, and would reinforce the softer trend that began in June, easing pressure on the Fed heading into September if they hold.

Hatzius attributed the first five months of 2026's worse-than-expected inflation to temporary drivers, including tariff pass-through, the impact of higher oil prices, particularly on the headline index, and a World Cup-related effect, all of which he says are now fading.

He also expects the year-on-year effect of tariffs to trend toward zero over the next 6 to 12 months, adding about 0.7 percentage points to core personal consumption expenditures inflation, currently running at 3.3%.