Howell Sees Higher Yields Ahead, Warns of Weak 2026 for Bitcoin
Michael Howell, a well-known liquidity expert and Cross-border capital founder, recently shared his insights on Bitcoin's price action. According to him, investors monitoring global M2 have misread Bitcoin's recent weakness because it responds to wholesale liquidity flowing through financial markets rather than retail bank deposits.
M2 is the U.S. Federal Reserve's estimate of liquid assets, which includes cash, money deposited in checking and savings accounts, and other short-term savings vehicles. Howell argued that M2 gives false signals for Bitcoin's price action and is more suitable for describing activity in the real economy than financial assets.
Howell attributed the decline in global liquidity to a significant U.S. deficit approaching 6% of GDP and artificial intelligence capital expenditure, which he believes drained liquidity from financial markets. He also cited six-week changes in global liquidity that advanced by three months, tracking a crypto basket with 60% BTC, 30% ETH, and 10% Solana (SOL).
Howell predicted that the 30-year yield would reach 6%, which he considered important for refinancing private sector borrowings arranged at lower rates. He added that this level could signal a constraint on economic growth.