ING Sees GBP/EUR Falling Towards 1.15 Despite Recent GDP Growth

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate rose by 0.24% on Friday, but analysts at ING still predict a decline towards 1.15 in Q4 2026.

This forecast is based on the Bank of England's interest-rate gap and the European Central Bank's inflation outlook.

ING's Francesco Pesole acknowledges that the recent GDP growth has strengthened the Pound, but notes that it 'has not had much impact on BoE decisions'.

The Bank of England is expected to tighten by 48 basis points by year-end and 110 basis points by July 2027, which would leave Sterling vulnerable to a potential dovish repricing.