Jobs Market Complexity: Understanding the Multiple Threads of US Data

The US jobs market is complex and multifaceted, and various data releases provide different insights into its performance. Initial jobless claims are released weekly and measure new applications for unemployment benefits, while continuing claims measure people who have already made an initial claim and remain on unemployment benefits in subsequent weeks.

These two measures tell us different things: initial claims indicate whether more people are losing their jobs, while continuing claims show what is happening to those already unemployed. A labour market can look healthy on one measure but less comfortable on the other.

The monthly Employment Situation report includes nonfarm payrolls, which are often the headline number watched by markets. However, even this report contains two major surveys: the establishment survey measures payroll employment, hours, and earnings at businesses and government agencies, while the household survey measures whether people are employed, unemployed, or outside the labour force.

ADP's National Employment Report uses anonymised payroll records to estimate changes in private-sector employment. While it is often seen as a predictor of nonfarm payrolls, ADP explicitly states that its report is an independent measure and not intended to forecast the BLS number. JOLTS, or the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, looks inside the machinery of the jobs market: vacancies, hires, quits, layoffs, and other separations.