Jobs Report Rodeo: Markets on High Alert Ahead of Key Jobs Data
Markets around the world are in a holding pattern as investors wait for the latest US jobs report, which is shaping up to be notoriously difficult to predict. The stakes are high because markets can't seem to make up their mind about how the Federal Reserve will move next month.
The consensus forecast is for an 80,000 job gain in July, but the range of predictions is so wide - from 10,000 to 140,000 - that someone is bound to be wrong. Unemployment is expected to hold steady at a low 4.2%, although some analysts are tipping 4.3%.
The jobs report will give policymakers a clear picture of the labor market's health and help them decide whether to hike interest rates next month. An in-line or stronger result would allow the Fed to raise rates if needed without jeopardizing the labor market, while a weaker outcome could lead markets to give up rate hike bets en masse.