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Forex

July US Non-Farm Payrolls Report: Weak July Curse Looms Large

Guavy AI Editorial Team
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USD
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The US non-farm payroll report for July is set to be released tonight, and market consensus expects an increase of about 80,000 jobs. However, forecasts vary widely from a high of 157,000 to a low of 40,000.

Influenced by the 'weak July' curse and weaker ADP data, downside risks are emerging. Despite this, employment for the World Cup and low layoffs provide some support.

Goldman Sachs predicts an increase of 75,000 jobs, slightly below consensus, while Vanguard gives a very low forecast of only 18,000 jobs. The Federal Reserve views inflation as a more urgent policy challenge than employment, and strong data may push up interest rates.

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