Kalshi Traders Bet on Warsh Oil Reference at Fed Press Conference

Kalshi traders are closely watching for any mentions of 'oil' and 'shock' in Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's upcoming press conference. According to CNBC, an event contract on Kalshi has placed a 74% chance that Warsh will say the word 'oil', while the odds of him mentioning 'shock' are above 50%. The contract is set to be resolved based on Warsh's remarks at the July press conference.

The Fed meeting comes after tensions between Iran and the United States were paused, following a series of exchanged attacks last week. Brent crude briefly rose above $100 per barrel before the halt reduced oil gains. As of Monday afternoon, Brent was trading below $89.

Bank of America has said it's 'textbook policy' for the central bank to avoid responding to an energy supply shock. A Kalshi contract on the July decision indicated nearly 75% odds that rates would remain at current levels, while another contract put the odds of the next Fed rate hike occurring this year at 68%.