Kalshi Traders Predict Slowing US Inflation in July

Forecasters on the Kalshi platform are predicting that U.S. inflation will slow down in July, according to recent market activity.

The expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is estimated to come in below economists' consensus forecast of 3.4% year-over-year increase, with a probability of less than 55% for the figure exceeding 3.3%, and only 15% for it surpassing 3.4%. This is in contrast to June's 3.5% CPI, which was predicted to be 3.8% by Dow Jones economists.

Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, also shows a lower expectation, with traders assigning a 47% probability that the annual rate would exceed 2.4%, and only an 11% probability that it would be higher than 2.5%. The Dow Jones consensus for core inflation is 2.5% in July.

The results of Kalshi's inflation contracts are subject to verification by data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which will release the report on Wednesday morning.