Loonie Surges to Two-Month High as WTI Rebound Boosts CAD
The Canadian Dollar has made a significant recovery against the US Dollar, reaching its strongest level in two months. According to Societe Generale's Kenneth Broux, USD/CAD has mean-reverted to 1.3933 from 1.4248 in late June and is now trading close to fair value based on 2-year bond spreads (Rsq 0.8).
This recovery is attributed to the rebound in WTI prices above $82/b, the elimination of speculative short positions, and the dovish repricing of the Fed post NFP.
A test of 1.3900 would mark a 50% retracement of the May-June rally, indicating that the Canadian Dollar's upward momentum is likely to continue.