Luxon's Coalition Fights for Power as Opportunity Party Surges

New Zealand's upcoming general election has become increasingly competitive, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's National-led coalition facing a narrow path to retaining government. The latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll shows National at 31.0%, up 0.5 percentage points, while Labour fell to 27.8%, down 3.7 points.

The Greens stood at 10.1%, and the smaller parties remained crucial in determining the overall parliamentary calculation. The seat projection gives the National-led coalition of National, ACT, and New Zealand First 61 seats in the 120-member Parliament, providing a majority of just one seat.

The Opportunity Party has crossed the 5% threshold, potentially changing the balance of power after the November election. It projects to win eight seats, which could affect the number of seats available to the larger blocs. The party's breakthrough is significant because New Zealand's Mixed-Member Proportional system allows smaller parties to win parliamentary representation based on their party vote.

Luxon faces renewed questions about his leadership and has called an urgent meeting of National Party lawmakers amid speculation over his position. The prime minister's challenge comes as the economy remains sluggish, with unemployment at 5.6% and inflation at 4.1%, adding economic pressure ahead of the election.