Manufacturing Employment Data Undergoes Downward Revision

A recent revision to manufacturing employment data has revealed a more pessimistic picture than previously thought.

The preliminary benchmark revision, based on Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, showed that manufacturing employment since January 2025 has been revised downward. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), this downward revision is significant, as it affects the overall picture of private nonfarm payroll employment.

The BLS data shows that manufacturing employment has indeed fallen since January 2025, with a more pronounced decline in the post-Liberation Day period. This trend is also reflected in ADP's employment data, which tracks private sector job growth.

Goldman Sachs has weighed in on this development, suggesting that the downward revision will likely be reduced in the final benchmark. However, the current preliminary data presents a stark picture, challenging the notion of a manufacturing employment renaissance.