Moderate Jobs Growth Predicted for July, Impacting Fed Rate Hike Expectations

The upcoming July 2026 Employment Situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show a moderate increase in US payrolls, with forecasts suggesting an addition of 85,000 to 100,000 jobs.

This follows a June gain of 57,000 jobs, reflecting a stable yet non-accelerating market. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at around 4.2%, while labor force participation is expected to be near 61.5%.

The 'low-hire, low-fire' trend suggests a labor market in equilibrium rather than substantial growth. This moderation in hiring appears to align with decreased expectations for the Federal Reserve to announce a rate hike by its September 2026 meeting.