Moody's Flags NZ Recovery Underway Amid Global Risks

Ratings agency Moody's has reported that New Zealand's economic recovery is underway. The agency credits strong agricultural export prices, recovering tourism, and the delayed impact of earlier interest rate cuts for the growth. According to Moody's, real GDP growth will accelerate to 1.6% in 2026 and reach 2.3% in 2027.

Agricultural exports are expected to continue as a key driver of economic activity, with dairy, meat, and kiwifruit prices remaining near historically high levels due to favorable global supply and demand. However, Moody's warns that ongoing external threats such as geopolitical tensions, global trade risks, El Niño conditions, and election-related uncertainty could knock momentum off course.

The agency notes that New Zealand's economy remains closely tied to international conditions and is vulnerable to shocks abroad. As a result, Moody's advises caution despite the improving outlook.