NAB Predicts RBA Will Keep Interest Rates Elevated Through 2026

National Australia Bank (NAB) is predicting that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its policy rate at 4.35% through 2026 due to a stubborn inflation rate and slowing economic growth.

The bank's view is based on softer business activity signals in its June business survey, which shows confidence has steadied but earlier geopolitical jitters are less disruptive than feared.

NAB expects underlying inflation to remain above the RBA's comfort zone, keeping policy tight. This tighter stance will flow through to broader forecasts, including slower economic growth, weaker household spending, and a gradually rising jobless rate into 2027.