New Zealand Economy Shows Resilience Amid Global Shocks
New Zealand's economy is showing resilience in the face of global shocks, with two separate forecasters indicating that momentum is returning. The BusinessNZ Planning Forecast has reported a significant increase in its Economic Conditions Index (ECI) for the September quarter, reaching 13 points - up from 0 in the prior quarter and 10 points higher than a year earlier.
The ECI reading lines up with Moody's assessment that New Zealand's recovery is underway. The ratings agency cited strong agricultural export prices, a tourism rebound, and the delayed effects of earlier rate cuts as contributing factors to its forecast of real GDP growth at 1.6% for 2026 and broadening to 2.3% in 2027.
BusinessNZ chief economist John Pask noted that overseas tensions are still weighing on sentiment but domestic performance is holding up better than anticipated. He cautioned that uncertainty surrounding the upcoming general election has made investors more cautious, although it hasn't yet affected investment behavior. Firms are largely pressing on regardless, with Pask stating 'businesses are conscious of the risks both at home and abroad, but for the most part are getting on with business.'