NL Set to Lead Canada's Economic Growth as Ontario Lags Behind

Newfoundland and Labrador is expected to lead Canada's economic growth for the second year in a row, according to a recent report by Signal49 Research. The province's economy will expand by 3.7 per cent in 2026, driven by higher crude prices and offshore oil projects. However, longer-term growth will be constrained by demographic pressures.

The report predicts that Ontario will have the weakest growth of all Canadian provinces this year, with an economy expanding just 0.2 per cent. The province has been hit hard by U.S. tariffs due to its heavy manufacturing sector. Quebec is also expected to feel the impact of these tariffs.

Richard Forbes, lead economist at Signal49 Research, notes that while some provinces have benefited from increased energy prices, others have suffered due to exposure in the manufacturing sector. He states that 'the increased energy prices have had benefits for some provinces, while the tariffs have been hardest on Ontario and Quebec due to the exposure in the manufacturing sector.'