Nomura Flags Three Consecutive Bank of Japan Hikes as Global Markets Prepare

Nomura's chief Japan economist Kyohei Morita has warned that the Bank of Japan could deliver three consecutive interest rate hikes in an extreme scenario. This would be a significant acceleration from the bank's current pace, which has seen rates rise at a more gradual pace over the past two years.

The forecast comes as the Bank of Japan continues to face pressure to control inflation, which has remained above its 2% target for over three years. Core consumer inflation in Japan has been driven higher by rising food prices, particularly rice, which nearly doubled in 2025.

Nomura's extreme case scenario would see rates rise at three consecutive policy meetings, compressing a process that has taken two years into just six months. This would signal a structurally higher Japanese yield floor and have significant implications for global markets, including emerging-market currencies such as the Kenyan shilling.