Northern Ireland Economy Grows Despite Global Pressures

Northern Ireland's economy continued to grow strongly in early 2026, despite global pressures, according to Bank of Ireland's latest UK Economic Outlook. The Composite Economic Indicator showed economic activity rising by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter.

However, growth is expected to moderate during the second half of the year as businesses contend with higher energy costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and softer business confidence. The Bank of Ireland UK Economic Outlook highlights that Northern Ireland has enjoyed a strong run over the past two years, outperforming the wider UK economy.

Conall Mac Coille, Group Chief Economist at Bank of Ireland, said: 'Northern Ireland's economy has performed strongly over recent years and continues to compare favourably with many other parts of the UK.' However, he noted that businesses are operating in an increasingly uncertain environment, with higher energy costs and global geopolitical tensions creating real challenges.

The Bank of Ireland forecasts GDP growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, with inflation expected to average 3.1% this year before easing to 2.5% next year. The principal risks facing both the UK and Northern Ireland economies are ongoing tensions in the Middle East and elevated energy prices.