Nvidia Earnings, Jackson Hole Symposium to Test Pillars of Stock Market Rally

Nvidia's earnings report on August 26 and the Jackson Hole symposium from August 27 to 29 will test the assumptions behind this year's stock market rally, particularly in the AI-driven surge in equities. Global bond yields surged this week, sending the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007, pressuring stocks and raising concerns about borrowing costs for households and companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure.

The Treasury Department's efforts to calm markets by doubling buybacks for long-dated debt offered only brief relief, with yields rebounding on Thursday. The S&P 500 is down this week and about 2% below its record high, as rising Treasury yields fuel worries about borrowing costs, weighing on semiconductor stocks and dragging the Philadelphia chips index down some 5% for the week.

Nvidia, whose chips underpin much of the AI infrastructure buildout, has become a proxy for the broader AI ecosystem. Its results could offer new insight into the demand underpinning that sector. The company recently teamed up with six major financial institutions on financing platforms targeting more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure.

Investors will be looking to Jackson Hole for clues about the policy environment in which the expansion of AI infrastructure will take place. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first appearance at the symposium since taking office in May 2026 will provide an opportunity for him to show eager markets how he intends to approach monetary policy and articulate the framework that will define his long-term strategy.

Markets are now pricing in a 35% chance of a September rate hike, with the odds rising to 66% by December. Aptus' Wagner said Warsh's move away from forward guidance could prove beneficial over time by discouraging investors from treating Fed signals as promises, even if it results in greater market volatility.