Oil Price Surge Lifts Canadian Dollar Amid Saudi Pipeline Disruptions
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has seen an uptick in value due to higher oil prices after a drone attack disrupted Saudi Arabia's major crude pipeline. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August, surpassing market expectations and solidifying expectations of a quarter-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's September meeting.
The disruption of the East-West pipeline has led to a surge in oil prices, with analysts noting that front-end rate differentials are providing support for the Canadian Dollar. However, Scotiabank analysts warn that the USD/CAD pair may rebound as the US Dollar gains strength amid aggressive Federal Reserve rate-hike bets.
The Technical Analysis section of the report notes that the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is acting as overhead resistance for the USD/CAD pair. A daily close above the 50-day EMA at 1.3913 would be needed to ease the bearish cap and open up a more sustained advance.