Paris Agreement's 1.5°C Target Still Elusive Despite Global Emissions Record

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. However, a new study by the European Central Bank suggests that the agreement's target is still out of reach. The study found that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are estimated to reach a record high of 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, exceeding the 1.5°C threshold for the first time.

The authors of the study note that while the Paris Agreement has changed the global trajectory, it is not enough to meet its targets. They attribute this to inadequate national commitments and a lack of binding mechanisms to ensure these commitments are honored. The study also highlights the need for more ambitious policies and actions to reduce emissions.

Despite the challenges, the authors argue that international cooperation has altered the baseline trajectory, and without the Paris Agreement, the world would likely be in a more dangerous situation. They advocate for a carbon price closer to its true cost to society, estimated at between $51 and $185 per tonne of CO2, as well as accelerating the roll-out of renewable energy sources and phasing out fossil fuels.

The study also emphasizes the need for transformational change, citing the example of solar power, which has seen a 90% decrease in costs since 2010. However, it warns that non-linear disruptions, such as the irreversible melting of ice sheets, are a growing concern and require urgent action.