Pound Slips as JPMorgan Forecasts 5.5% Decline in USD Rate

JPMorgan's forecast for the Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate is bearish, predicting a decline from 1.3541 to 1.28 by December 2026.

This represents a drop of roughly 5.5% and puts the Pound Sterling at the bottom of the latest consensus range.

The bank's forecast extends beyond one policy meeting and across 2027, with a predicted path that includes a low point of 1.28 in June 2027.

This is a notably bearish destination, as the Exchange Rates UK Research Currency Forecast Sentiment Survey has a fourth-quarter median of 1.3446 and a range of 1.28 to 1.40.

JPMorgan's 1.28 forecast therefore sits at the survey floor rather than near its centre.