QCEW vs CES: Is the Job Growth Uptrend a Mirage?

The accuracy of job growth numbers in the US is being questioned after comparing the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to the Current Employment Statistics (CES) nonfarm payroll report. The QCEW showed a gain of just 86,000 jobs year-over-year through March, compared to the CES's +211,000 jobs.

The discrepancy between the two reports is significant, with the CES survey covering only ~629,000 establishments and having a response rate of 43.3%, while QCEW consists of 12.2 million establishments with about 95% coverage. The BLS adjusts CES numbers with annual benchmark revisions, but recent revisions have been small.

The article suggests that the recent uptrend in nonfarm payrolls may be a mirage due to sampling and non-sampling errors. It also notes that QCEW includes some agricultural households that CES drops, while CES includes some railroads and religious organizations that QCEW doesn't.

The BLS is using stale Birth-Death models for every monthly nonfarm payroll report, which may be overestimating jobs due to the absence of new immigrant firms. The Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report will catch birth-death sampling and non-sampling errors but with an even bigger lag.