Rabobank Expects USD/JPY to Dip to 157-158 Amid BoJ Rate Hike and US Pressure
Currency analysts at Rabobank expect the US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate to dip towards 157-158 over the next three to six months due to a combination of factors.
The current USD/JPY exchange rate is around 160.03, having recovered roughly half of its fall triggered by the joint US-Japan intervention at the end of July.
Rabobank notes that the prospect of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) September rate hike and the fear of further FX intervention in support of the JPY contribute to this outlook.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent comments have added pressure on Tokyo, with him stating that he expects BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda 'to do the right thing' before going further. Bessent has a history of making his views clear on Bank of Japan policy, having previously stated that the BoJ is 'behind the curve' on inflation in August 2025.
The next BoJ policy meeting is scheduled for September 17-18, and markets are increasingly pricing in a stronger yen due to rising Japanese yields. The 10-year JGB yield reached 3% on Tuesday for the first time since 1996, while the two-year yield hit its highest level in 31 years.