RBNZ Closely Watches Inflation Amid Forex Seasonal Patterns

The upcoming month of September 2026 marks an opportunity to review seasonal patterns in the forex market, which have been influenced by various economic and financial factors since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971. Historically, these seasonal tendencies are just averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) committee has expressed concerns about inflation returning to its target midpoint of 2 percent over the medium term. They note that unused capacity still exists across the economy, with particular slack in the labour market. Members agree that additional OCR increases could be required under the central scenario.

The Australian economy saw a rise of 0.4% in seasonally adjusted chain volume measures and 0.8% in nominal terms in recent data. However, household saving to income ratio rose to 6.5% from 6.4%. Volatility has typically been lower for the US dollar index during summer months, with August's high-to-low range of 1.5% its lowest since November.