Rieder Sees No Rate Hike for Fed After Bleak Jobs Report

BlackRock's Rick Rieder believes that the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates in the near term, following the July 2026 employment report. The report showed a decline in nonfarm payrolls by 23,000 and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. This view aligns with market trends that are increasingly supportive of scenarios where the Fed opts for rate cuts instead of hikes.

Rieder's comments have already affected market pricing, with the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting decreasing to 36.5% from 44% just 24 hours ago. Similarly, the likelihood of a rate hike by the October meeting has also fallen, now standing at 49.5%. Conversely, markets suggest a potential increase in the likelihood of rate cuts.

Rieder has been vocal about his stance on monetary policy, advocating for lower rates to avoid economic over-tightening. The recent labor market data appears to support his perspective, as it indicates a weakening that might necessitate a shift in the Fed's approach to interest rates.