Rupiah Forecast to Weaken Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

The Indonesian rupiah is expected to weaken on Monday, August 31, 2026, according to market analysts. The currency's exchange rate is projected to move within a range of IDR 17,690 to IDR 17,750 per US dollar (USD).

This forecast comes after the rupiah closed up 51 points or 0.29 percent to IDR 17,693 per USD on Friday, August 28. The Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) also strengthened by 0.33 percent to IDR 17,703 per USD.

The market is still cautious about the direction of US monetary policy following Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The increase in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to 3.7 percent year-on-year in July 2026 has strengthened speculation that the Federal Reserve may tighten interest rate policy.

Market participants will also be watching the release of Indonesian inflation data, which is considered a crucial indicator for Bank Indonesia in determining monetary policy and interest rates. The movement of imports, especially food commodities, is a concern as it can affect inflationary pressures and foreign exchange needs.