Rupiah Weakens Amid Global Oil Price Surge

Market sentiment turned bearish as global oil prices surged due to attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure and ships in the Gulf. According to Bank Mandiri's Office of the Chief Economist, the rupiah exchange rate is likely to weaken, trading between Rp17,590-17,685 per US dollar.

Bank Mandiri Head Economist Andry Asmoro attributed the weakening tendency to emerging pressure from global oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week. However, he noted that relatively stable DXY and positive foreign capital inflows in the bond market may limit the extent of rupiah depreciation.

Fakhrul Fulvian, chief economist at Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, warned that Indonesia needs to prepare for a period of higher global financing costs. He emphasized that the country's challenge is not only the direction of the Fed interest rate but also the potential for a longer-lasting change in the global clearing price of capital.

Bank Mandiri reported that Brent crude oil fell by 2.81 percent to US$104.6 per barrel on Friday, September 11, 2026. However, prices rose by about 3 percent to US$107 per barrel on Monday morning. Year-to-date, Brent crude oil has increased by 71.91 percent.

Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 4.2 basis points to 7.15 percent on Monday. The five-year yield rose by 9.2 basis points, reaching 7.03 percent. Foreign investors recorded a net inflow of Rp10.1 trillion into government bonds on September 10.