Russia's Regulated Crypto Market Could Reach $46 Billion in First Year
Russia is poised to enter a new era of regulated cryptocurrency trading, with estimates suggesting it could reach $46.4 billion in its first year.
The forecast comes from Sberbank's Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov, who cited Finance Ministry data showing daily cryptocurrency transactions in Russia running at about 50 billion rubles ($1.13 billion), or roughly 18 trillion rubles a year.
SberCIB analysts estimate that around 20% of this volume will migrate to regulated exchanges in the first year after legalization, resulting in between 3.5 and 4 trillion rubles being traded on licensed platforms. This figure is projected to reach 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029 as more investors move onto official venues.
The outlook deliberately understates the market's eventual scale, with Popov noting that a significant share of crypto activity will continue flowing through exchange services that bypass licensed trading venues. The new framework takes effect on September 1, but professional market participants have until July 1, 2027, to obtain licenses.
Sberbank is positioning itself as a gateway to the country's regulated market with an off-chain crypto trading system and plans to accept BTC, ETH, and USDT as loan collateral. This move supports adoption on CEX/regulated platforms even as activity may remain on informal services and DEX/DeFi channels.