September's Seasonal Storm: Live Fed, Oil at Triple Digits, and Yen on the Rise

The market is gearing up for a potentially volatile week as investors face a multitude of challenges. The US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, inflation data, and oil prices near triple digits are just a few of the pressing concerns.

The September seasonality has historically delivered weaker equity returns and more volatility than average months. With the summer's calm giving way to a fuller calendar, investors are bracing for increased risk. The payroll report released on Friday was strong enough to keep a Fed hike in play but not strong enough to settle the debate.

This week's CPI data will be the deciding factor, with a soft print maintaining the status quo and a hotter print sending shockwaves through the market. Oil prices have already begun to move in the wrong direction at the worst possible moment, rising above $92/bbl and forcing investors to price in a more conditional shipping regime.

The yen has broken the 155 level, with markets pricing in a firmer BOJ tightening path and Japanese portfolio repatriation. However, much of this good news is already priced into the trade, leaving traders wondering if there's more to the story.