Sterling Bulls Wait and See as Rate Hike Probability Drops to Just 15%

The UK's pound sterling has seen its rate hike expectations pushed back to early 2027, with only a 15% probability assigned to a hike at the September meeting.

This shift is largely due to falling oil prices, which have eased inflation concerns and led markets to reevaluate their expectations for Bank of England interest rates.

The data from LSEG indicates that financial markets are pricing in approximately 24 basis points of tightening by December, with a cumulative total of 36 basis points by February 2027.