Swiss Franc Soars as USD/CHF Bears Emerge Amid Treasury Intervention Fears

The US Treasury's recent announcement to double long-dated Treasury buybacks has sparked concerns over the dollar's safe-haven status. The move, which is aimed at combating market forces and suppressing bond yields, has led investors to seek alternatives to the US dollar.

The Swiss franc, known for its fundamental strength and low government debt, has emerged as a top beneficiary of this trend. With a net international investment position sitting at around 111% of GDP in 2025, Switzerland is a major net creditor to the rest of the world, owning far more assets overseas than foreigners own in Switzerland.

The technical picture also favors selling into strength rather than buying dips. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to set lower highs and lower lows, sitting beneath the neutral 50 level at 39. This is confirmed by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which has crossed beneath its signal line and flipped negative.

The USD/CHF bearish bias remains intact, with a mammoth bearish bar breaking the minor uptrend that had been in place since early July. The price stalled just shy of uptrend support running from the January low before reversing on Thursday, reclaiming the 100-day moving average in the process.