TD Report Cuts Predictions for Pipeline-Driven Economic Growth

A new oil pipeline to the West Coast could have a significant impact on Canada and Alberta's economy, but not as much as government officials are predicting. TD Economics released a report that suggests the project would contribute 'meaningfully' to growth, particularly with improving market access and export diversification. The government analysis predicts a 0.6% boost to the national economy by the 2040s and 3.5% to Alberta's.

However, TD economists Marc Ercolao and Likeleli Seitlheko wrote that these estimates 'lean optimistic' and should be viewed with caution. They suggest a more conservative approach could yield a 0.3% national GDP boost and 2% in Alberta.

The pipeline would be developed by Crown-owned Trans Mountain Corp., which is estimated to cost between $35 billion and $44 billion, with 90% of the costs shouldered by the federal and provincial governments.