The Many Faces of US Jobs Data: Understanding the Different Perspectives

The US jobs market is complex and multifaceted, with various data releases that provide different insights. While initial jobless claims are often released weekly, continuing claims offer clues about how difficult it is for someone who loses a job to get back into work.

Nonfarm payrolls, which form part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report, are closely watched by investors. However, even this report contains two major surveys: the establishment survey and the household survey. The establishment survey measures payroll employment, hours, and earnings at businesses and government agencies, while the household survey measures whether people are employed, unemployed, or outside the labor force.

The ADP National Employment Report provides an independent measure of private-sector employment, using anonymized payroll records covering over 26 million US employees. While it is often seen as a precursor to the official nonfarm payrolls report, ADP explicitly states that its report is not intended to forecast NFP. In fact, a discrepancy between ADP's estimate and NFP can be due to differences in datasets and methodologies.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) provides a more nuanced view of the labor market by looking at vacancies, hires, quits, layoffs, and other separations. JOLTS data for June showed around 7.4 million openings, 5.3 million hires, and 3.2 million quits.