Treasurys Plummet to 16-Year Low as Yields Soar
US Treasurys have been under pressure in recent weeks, with yields at their highest since 2007. This has led some to question whether they are becoming 'uninvestable.' One writer who posed this question last weekend was accused of clickbait.
A week later, the bearish call implicit in that piece seemed prescient as the four trading sessions post-Labor Day counted among the five worst for US long-end Treasurys. 30-year yields hit a new high and 10s came within a basis point of 5%.
The TLT ETF, which tracks the popular long-end, traded as low as $80.67 on September 10, its lowest intraday price in over 16 years. The writer notes that it wouldn't be surprising if this date is remembered as a 'darkest before the dawn' moment for Treasurys.
The rates complex was thrown into turmoil by surging crude, warm factory-gate prices, upward revisions to ECB staff inflation forecasts, and an underwhelming Treasury buyback operation. The situation stabilized Friday in response to a warm core CPI print, but the writer has doubts about Kevin Warsh's willingness to hike ahead of the mid-terms.
The week saw sharply higher front-end yields, with twos cheaper by one full 'hike' on the week. Treasurys as an asset class are down about 1.5% for 2026 versus a 80% gain for commodities.