Trump Faces Sinking Approval Amid Economic Woes

As the US midterm elections draw near, President Donald Trump faces mounting pressure to address the country's economic woes and rising inflation. With three months remaining until Election Day, experts say there is little the administration can do to bring relief to Americans battered by stagnant wages and steep inflation before they hit the polls.

The Trump administration has few levers to turn the tide in such a short period, and has shown little interest in using those it does have. Instead, President Trump has persisted in waging war in Iran and pushed forward with new tariffs on trade partners despite both contributing to soaring costs for food, gas, and other basic necessities.

Experts say options like issuing rebate checks for consumers or releasing strategic oil reserves would be costly in the long run. The Federal Reserve also declined to use its primary tool for reducing inflation, increasing interest rates, by instead holding rates steady. Trump had not supported a rate increase, instead pressuring the central bank to lower rates, which can lower borrowing costs but increase inflation.

Damage to oil refining capabilities in the Middle East as a result of the war in Iran is virtually impossible to resolve in the near term, and other factors driving up costs are already baked into pricing. Incumbent parties often suffer midterm losses when voters are broadly pessimistic about the economy, which is now despite remarkable resilience in the US labor market and strong stock returns.

New data showed the US economy growing at a sluggish 1.5 percent pace from April through June, with consumer spending and inflation slowing down. However, slowing inflation has not meant lower costs. As the Iran war entered its sixth month, average gas prices nationally climbed back above $4 a gallon, and the price of Brent crude oil rose to $90 a barrel.

Jonathan Nagler, a New York University professor who studies how the economy shapes politics, said it is impossible to predict how voters will feel about the economy three months from now. However, data make clear that 'the better the economy is, the better the incumbent does,' and voters will blame Trump and his party for their economic woes if they persist.

Democratic leaders are seizing on the economy as the midterms' defining issue, promising to hold Republicans accountable for rising costs and stagnant wages. A recent CNN poll found 65 percent of Americans believe Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions in the country, while less than a quarter, 22 percent, said they had improved conditions.