UAH Exchange Rate Stabilizes Amid Ongoing Conflict and Global Uncertainty

The Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) exchange rate against major currencies has remained relatively stable in August, thanks to the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) flexible exchange rate strategy and active participation in trading on the interbank foreign exchange market. The NBU sold $2.11 billion worth of foreign currency through interventions in the first half of August, a nearly equivalent amount to that in July.

The ongoing conflict with Russia has led to difficulties in transporting Ukrainian goods by sea, resulting in a 75% year-over-year decline in agricultural exports in the first two weeks of August. However, the NBU claims it is keeping the situation under control and expects only moderate additional demand for foreign currency due to its easing measures on foreign exchange restrictions.

The global context remains uncertain ahead of the Federal Reserve Committee's meeting in September, where a decision on changing benchmark interest rates could be made. Despite this uncertainty, oil prices remain volatile, with Brent crude reaching $88.44 per barrel on August 17.