UBS Hikes Rate Expectations After Strong Employment Numbers

UBS Global Wealth Management has unexpectedly revised its monetary policy forecast, anticipating two quarter-point rate increases in September and December 2026.

The revision follows robust August employment figures that exceeded analyst projections. American employers created 162,000 new positions in August, while the jobless rate remained steady at 4.1%.

Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole played a significant role in the updated projection. Trading data indicates a 58% probability of a September rate hike, climbing from 52% previously.