UBS Sees Rate Hikes Coming in September and December 2026

UBS has revised its forecast for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, projecting increases in both September and December 2026. This marks a departure from the bank's earlier stance of no policy change for the remainder of the year.

The shift in expectation follows a robust U.S. jobs report, which highlighted the strength of the labor market. Market behavior indicates a growing anticipation of tighter monetary policy, with participants adjusting to reflect the likelihood of upcoming rate hikes.

This development suggests a significant move away from scenarios where the Fed would consistently pause interest rates throughout the year. Observers will be focused on upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings for confirmation of rate decisions.