UK Economy Defies Expectations with 0.4% Growth

The UK economy has defied expectations by growing at a rate of 0.4% in the three months to June 2026, with industry commentators describing it as 'more resilient than many expected'.

This growth was driven by a 0.4% rise in services, but was partially offset by falls of 0.2% in production and 0.1% in construction.

Experts have warned that this growth may not last, with some predicting a return to the trend seen in 2025, where the first half of the year saw strong growth followed by a decline in the second half.

Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, stated that 'the economy was in a more robust shape than previously thought', but cautioned against complacency, saying 'it is vital that the new administration does not repeat the same mistakes as the last one and choke off any growth by allowing speculation of tax rises to run rampant'.

Scottish Friendly savings specialist Kevin Brown agreed, saying the real question was how long this resilience could last, while Schroders senior economist George Brown attributed the growth to 'seasonal quirks', predicting that momentum would fade in the second half of the year.