UK Energy Prices Reach 2022 Levels, But Economic Impact Diverges

The UK is facing another energy shock that's almost as severe as the one in 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. According to research from Permutable, energy accounted for 42.1% of the absolute UK inflation signal on September 9, 2026, a similar figure to 42.7% on the same date in 2022.

However, the impact of this latest shock is very different from the one two years ago. In 2022, the energy price increase spread rapidly into other areas of inflation, particularly food. This time around, the pressure remains concentrated on energy alone.

The data comes from Permutable's Global Macro Sentiment Indices (GMSI), which track inflation signals across various sectors. While the current episode shares some similarities with the 2022 shock, it has a distinct pattern in terms of its economic impact.