UK Energy Shock Reaches 2022 Levels But Inflation Pressures Remain Limited

The UK's latest energy shock has reached almost the same level of concentration in the inflation signal as it did in September 2022, but so far, it hasn't led to a broader inflationary spillover like four years ago.

Permutable's Global Macro Sentiment Indices (GMSI) show that energy accounted for 42.1% of the UK inflation signal on September 9, 2026, compared to 42.7% in 2022.

However, unlike 2022, when higher energy costs spread quickly through the inflation basket, this year's pressure remains heavily concentrated in energy, with little evidence that it has developed into sustained second-round inflation.

Jack Watson, Market Analyst at Permutable, noted that 'the difference is what has happened next,' as food and services have not yet turned decisively higher. He emphasized that the key thing to watch now is whether these sectors begin to turn higher and stay there, which would be a clearer sign that the energy shock is becoming a broader inflation problem.