UK Jobs Data Deals Blow to BoE Rate Hike Bets

The UK's jobs data has given the Bank of England little reason to consider raising interest rates in the near future. According to the figures, job vacancies are falling, earnings growth is slowing, and payroll numbers continue to shrink.

Unemployment remains stuck at around 5%, and the labour market shows clear signs of slack rather than tightening. This should keep a lid on wage pressures, which in turn could have an impact on inflation.

Inflation remains on a broadly disinflationary path, with no meaningful evidence of second-round effects filtering through into wages or prices. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may hold rates steady for the rest of the year before cutting them at some point in 2027.