UK Labour Market Anticipated to Remain Stable in June

TD Securities expects the UK labour market to remain soft but stable in June. According to their forecast, employment will rise by 100k on a three-month basis and unemployment will edge down to 4.7%. This is expected despite some slowing in wage growth.

The firm's analysis suggests that the headline average weekly earnings growth measure will slow to 4.0% over the past three months. Meanwhile, ex-bonus pay is forecasted to hold steady at 3.4%, with private earnings ex-bonus growth set to dip to 2.7%. These wage dynamics are expected to reassure the Bank of England and support keeping the Bank Rate unchanged.

The labour market's steady but lacklustre path since the start of the year is anticipated to continue in June, with TD Securities predicting a modest increase in employment and a slight decrease in unemployment.