UK Q2 GDP Estimates Due: War in the Middle East Weighs on Economic Progress

The United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics will release preliminary estimates of Q2 GDP on Thursday. Market analysts anticipate a 0.4% growth in the three months to June, following a modest 0.6% advance in the first quarter of 2026. The expected annual progress is 1.1%, up from 0.9% posted in March.

The ongoing war in the Middle East continues to weigh on UK economic progress. A slowdown in consumer spending, driven by tighter credit conditions and weak real wage growth, is expected to contribute to tepid outcomes.

Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that a better-than-anticipated GDP reading could push GBP/USD closer to the 1.3600 mark. However, sustained gains around this level would depend on market sentiment and USD strength or weakness.